Globes' Iffy Record in Predicting Oscars
The Golden Globes beg a big question: Will the Oscar winners be the same people that were honored Sunday night?
Historically, there hasn't been a lot of synchronicity (more on that later). There's also a huge difference between the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, which hosts the Globes, and the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.
"The Academy is bigger, and also, the demographic is different," said Paul Dergarabedian, Hollywood.com's chief box office analyst.
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Academy voters skew older than the HFPA's 90-some odd members. The Globes often honor flashier, higher profile stars - remember when Angelina Jolie and Johnny Depp's critical bomb "The Tourist" got nominated for three Golden Globes in 2010? - while the Oscars traditionally favor industry veterans.
There's bound to be at least a few discrepancies between this year's Globe and Oscar winners. Ben Affleck, who won best director Sunday night for "Argo," wasn't nominated for a directing or acting Oscar, a significant snub. But because the HFPA honored his behind the camera skills and "Argo" scored the Globe for best picture, the film's Oscar odds look a little better than they did last week.
"This gives 'Argo' a shot in the arm and a new lease on Oscar life, considering that it was a big disappointment that Ben Affleck was not nominated," Dergarabedian said.
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That said, let's take a look at the numbers. We took four major categories and compared the Globe winners with the Oscar winners over the past five years. Because the Globes have comedy/drama categories, we selected the dramatic movies, which are generally more in sync with the Academy's selections. Instances in which the HFPA and Academy matched up are noted in bold. Judging by the (recent) past, the Globes may not be the best barometer for the Oscars after all.
2012
Oscar winners Best picture: "The Artist" Best actress: Meryl Streep, "The Iron Lady" Best actor: Jean Dujardin, "The Artist" Best director: Michel Hazanavicius, "The Artist"
Golden Globe winners Best picture (drama): ""The Descendants"* Best actress (drama): Meryl Streep, "The Iron Lady" Best actor (drama): George Clooney, "The Descendants" Best director: Martin Scorsese, "Hugo" *"The Artist" won in the best picture (comedy) category
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2011
Oscar winners Best picture: "The King's Speech" Best actress: Natalie Portman, "Black Swan" Best actor: Colin Firth, "The King's Speech" Best director: Tom Hooper, "The King's Speech"
Golden Globe winners Best picture (drama): "The Social Network" Best actress (drama): Natalie Portman, "Black Swan" Best actor (drama): Colin Firth, "The King's Speech" Best director: David Fincher, "The Social Network"
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2010
Oscar winners Best picture: "The Hurt Locker" Best actress: Sandra Bullock, "The Blind Side" Best actor: Jeff Bridges, "Crazy Heart" Best director: Kathryn Bigelow, "The Hurt Locker"
Golden Globe winners Best picture (drama): "Avatar" Best actress (drama): Sandra Bullock, "The Blind Side" Best actor (drama): Jeff Bridges, "Crazy Heart" Best director: James Cameron, "Avatar"
2009
Oscar winners Best picture: "Slumdog Millionaire" Best actress: Kate Winslet, "The Reader" Best actor: Sean Penn, "Milk" Best director: Danny Boyle, "Slumdog Millionaire"
Golden Globe winners Best picture (drama): "Slumdog Millionaire" Best actress (drama): Kate Winslet, "Revolutionary Road" Best actor (drama): Mickey Rourke, "The Wrestler" Best director: Danny Boyle, "Slumdog Millionaire"
2008
Oscar winners Best picture: "No Country for Old Men" Best actress: Marion Cotillard, "La Vie en Rose" Best actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood" Best director: Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, "No Country for Old Men"
Golden Globe winners Best picture (drama): "Atonement" Best actress (drama): Julie Christie, "Away From Her" Best actor (drama): Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood" Best director: Julian Schnabel, "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
